KATHMANDU: Nearly two years after stepping down as Nepal’s President, and within a month of returning from a high-profile China visit, Bidya Devi Bhandari has announced her comeback in active party politics, sending ripples across her party, the ruling Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist and Leninist (CPN-UML), and beyond. Addressing an event organized in Kathmandu on Saturday, Bhandari formally announced her return to the CPN-UML, sparking speculation about her ambitions and the future of the party’s current chairman and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli.
“After becoming free from a unique political responsibility,” Bhandari said, referring to her former role as Nepal’s President, “I renewed my party membership with the pious objective of giving continuity to my political journey by remaining within the CPN-UML.”
A challenge to Oli’s hold
Although she said that she did not have any specific political ambition, Bhandari’s comeback is widely viewed as a direct challenge to Oli whose dominance in the UML is increasingly contested. Once celebrated for what some call his “nationalist stand” while others term his “populist stunts”, Oli’s popularity graph has made a nosedive in recent months – not least because many of his former loyalists are disenchanted with his leadership style and the party’s direction. The timing of Bhandari’s return to active politics, coming within weeks of her high-profile China visit and amid signs of external encouragement, is seen by many as a calculated move to rally dissatisfied party activists and present herself as an alternative leader.
Though Bhandari has played down any specific leadership ambitions, party insiders openly suggest that she could seek to unseat Oli at the UML’s general convention, touted as “Policy Convention” scheduled for September this year, unless the two can strike a compromise.
Recently, on the evening of June 19, Bhandari held a meeting with Oli. During the meeting, Bhandari reportedly urged Oli to support her bid for party leadership. Oli’s response has not been made public in clear terms. However, Oli has been making remarks such as that he is “still young” and could “continue leading the party for another 20 years.”
Oli’s calculated shift on India and the Mahakali Treaty
Addressing the same event as Chief Guest, and before Bhandari could deliver her speech, PM Oli defended the Mahakali Treaty—an agreement signed between Nepal and India in 1996 for the joint development of the Mahakali River, which borders both countries. The treaty promises equal sharing of the river’s waters and benefits, with its centrepiece being the ambitious Pancheswar Multipurpose Project, a large-scale hydroelectric and irrigation venture designed to serve both Nepal and India’s far-western regions.
Oli’s defense of the treaty marks a striking departure from his earlier, more combative posture towards New Delhi. “There is nothing wrong with the Mahakali river treaty signed between Nepal and India. There was no real issue with the Mahakali Treaty. It was a fake issue. Some people had the compulsion of running around carrying the national flag to appear more nationalistic than others,“ Oli remarked at the event commemorating Madan Bhandari. He dismissed accusations that the treaty was a “sellout” of Nepal’s interests as “all fake, false and hypocritical,” and reaffirmed his commitment to seeing the Pancheswar Project implemented after years of delay.
When the treaty was first signed, it had actually split Oli’s own party, the UML—some saw it as a pragmatic step for development, while others viewed it as a compromise of Nepal’s sovereignty. That legacy of internal discord still lingers, making Oli’s newfound enthusiasm for the project all the more notable. “Now everyone seems to be in favor of implementing the [Mahakali River] projects. Count me as well. Perhaps the right situation for the construction of the Pancheswar Multipurpose Project will be created in the near future. This is something we must do,” said Oli.
This is the same Oli, who, during the COVID-19 pandemic, famously accused India of sending the virus to Nepal. His relations with New Delhi were further strained when he published a new map of Nepal including the territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Lipiyadhura, which India claims as its own territory. That map amendment, swiftly passed by Nepal’s parliament, was widely seen as an appeal to nationalist sentiment and a clear signal to both Beijing and New Delhi.
The Kalapani dispute, a long-standing territorial issue, has at times strained otherwise friendly India-Nepal relations and provided a useful lever for Nepali politicians seeking domestic support.
But as the party’s internal politics heat up, Oli appears to be recalibrating his moves. His softer tone on India and the Mahakali Treaty suggests a willingness to balance Nepal’s foreign relations more pragmatically—perhaps to blunt Bhandari’s challenge or to shore up support among UML factions that favor a less confrontational approach with New Delhi.
China’s shadow and the looming leadership contest
Bhandari’s recent trip to China, coupled with reports that she returned with strong “goodwill messages” and possible tacit support for her political ambitions, has added another layer of intrigue. Several UML leaders claim Beijing is quietly encouraging leadership change and greater communist unity ahead of Nepal’s next parliamentary elections. This shifting international context is not lost on Oli, whose long game has often been to play China and India off one another to his own advantage.
But with Bhandari’s return—and the backing she seems to command, both at home and abroad—he may be forced to reconsider his tactics.
High stakes for the UML and Nepal
With the UML’s September convention approaching, the party is rapidly becoming the main battleground for Nepal’s geopolitical and ideological future. If Bhandari’s challenge gains traction, it could fundamentally alter the party’s trajectory and Nepal’s foreign policy orientation.
Even if Oli survives, he is likely to pursue a more nuanced and balanced approach toward both China and India, using the Mahakali Treaty and related projects as leverage to present himself as a unifying statesman.
For now, the only certainty is that Bhandari’s return has upended Nepal’s political status quo and forced KP Oli—long known for his unpredictability and political cunning—to rethink his strategy, both at home and in Nepal’s delicate neighborhood.
