A new and sensitive phase is unfolding in Assam’s long quest for peace and stability. Recent developments have revealed the use of distinct strategies by the authorities: on one hand, engaging in peace talks and reconciliation with one faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), and on the other, dealing with a more uncompromising group whose stance remains unchanged. This delicate balancing act has resulted in both historic peace accords and renewed tensions as well, keeping the resolution of the 46-year-old conflict just out of reach.
In July, the hardline ULFA-Independent (ULFA-I), led by Paresh Baruah, reported that its camps in Myanmar’s Sagaing region were targeted in a significant operation. The group claimed the loss of several senior leaders, including Nayan Medhi (Nayan Asom), who was responsible for the political wing, as well as other commanders. While the authorities have officially stated there was no involvement, the incident has introduced fresh uncertainty, impacting confidence in the ongoing efforts to resolve the issue through dialogue. Meanwhile, ULFA-I’s reluctance to engage in peace processes has added to the complexity of the situation.
Amidst these developments, Assam’s political environment has grown increasingly intricate. While ULFA-I continues to uphold its demand for sovereignty, the pro-talks faction of ULFA, led by Arabinda Rajkhowa, reached a milestone in December 2023 by signing a tripartite Memorandum of Settlement with the authorities. This agreement marked a significant breakthrough: the pro-talks faction agreed to renounce violence, disband its organization, and surrender all arms. The accord also offered a substantial development package of ₹1.5 lakh crore for Assam and reserved a majority of assembly seats for indigenous communities, reflecting a significant effort toward inclusive political representation.
Further progress was seen when prominent former ULFA-I leaders, such as Drishti Rajkhowa, surrendered and entered mainstream politics. These moves have been celebrated as important steps toward normalisation and have encouraged others to return to civilian life. Yet, despite these advances, reports indicate that ULFA-I continues to attract young recruits, including women, particularly from Upper Assam. This ongoing appeal points to unresolved grievances related to economic opportunities, unemployment, and feelings of cultural and political marginalisation among some sections of society.
Concurrently, Assam’s leadership has intensified efforts to address concerns around land and identity. Recent initiatives have focused on eviction drives in areas such as Goalpara, particularly targeting settlements on government land. These actions are described as necessary for safeguarding the interests of indigenous and tribal populations. However, critics caution that these measures risk overshadowing the nuanced challenges of insurgency and may inadvertently conflate different issues, such as migration and political discontent.
Assam’s current reality cannot be separated from its history. The roots of today’s issues stretch back to the Assam Movement of 1979-1985, a mass agitation sparked by concerns over migration and the desire to protect Assamese identity. The movement led to the 1985 Assam Accord, which sought to safeguard political and economic rights for the state’s residents. Frustrations over the implementation of the Accord fuelled the formation of ULFA and the subsequent decades of conflict. The violence, which has claimed thousands of lives, left behind difficult memories, including the tragic “secret killings” of the late 1990s.
Today, Assam stands at a pivotal juncture. The disbandment of the pro-talks ULFA faction marks a significant step towards peace, but it is not the end of the story. The persistence of ULFA-I and its continued recruitment of disillusioned youth, particularly from Upper Assam, suggest that the conflict is evolving rather than ending. These developments indicate that while important progress has been made, ongoing vigilance and adaptive strategies will be needed to address the factors that continue to draw young people into the ranks of the outfit and to move closer to a sustainable peace.
Moving forward, the situation in Assam calls for sustained vigilance and responsiveness to new challenges as they arise. Continued efforts to maintain peace, uphold development initiatives, and monitor evolving trends in recruitment and public sentiment will be vital. With the landscape shifting, a flexible and pragmatic approach—backed by coordination among all relevant stakeholders—can help ensure that progress achieved so far is not only preserved but also advanced towards a more stable and peaceful future.
