China’s building of a mega-dam in the lower region of the Yarlung Tsangpo is altering the Himalayan geopolitical landscape, escalating China’s water war against South Asia over Tibet’s river. If war were to happen between China and India over the Himalayas, the eastern Himalaya would be the next battleground. This is because the Chinese authorities are making a water bomb in the form of hydropower dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet. This has serious implications for India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.
In a move that highlights China’s growing ambitions to control transboundary water resources, Beijing has formally included the construction of a massive hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo in its 14th Five-Year Plan, announced in December last year. On July 19, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced the official start of construction of the dam on the river’s lower reaches in Nyingchi City of Tibet, which is located near the Line of Actual Control (LAC), next to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.
The project is expected to become the world’s largest hydropower facility, with a projected annual output of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, three times that of the Three Gorges Dam. The dam is being built just before the Yarlung Tsangpo bends southward into India, at the lower part of the river where it makes a U-turn at the Great Bend and enters Arunachal Pradesh in India, where it becomes the Brahmaputra River. This raises major concerns for downstream nations such as India and Bangladesh.
At the launch event, Premier Li also introduced the China Yajiang Group, a newly established state-owned enterprise tasked with overseeing the dam’s development. The project is estimated to cost at least $170 billion and will include the construction of five cascade dams around Nyingchi. Reports suggest that engineers are planning to straighten certain bends in the river and divert water through tunnels to optimize flow and power generation.
Earlier this year, China’s National Development and Reform Commission also included the dam and a related power transmission line to the Hong Kong area in its annual report to the National People’s Congress, underscoring the project’s national strategic significance.
However, the project’s location in the seismically active Himalayan region has sparked alarm. Experts warn that a structural failure due to a major earthquake could result in catastrophic flooding across lower riparian regions. Environmentalists and regional observers have also raised concerns over the ecological impact and the lack of transboundary consultation with affected downstream countries.
China claims that the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project is part of its “West-to-East Electricity Transfer Project” (西电东送, Xidian Dongsong), a long-standing national strategy to transfer power generated in the resource-rich western regions to the industrialized and densely populated eastern provinces. But behind that green, technocratic language lie strategic ambitions related to water control, regional influence, and border assertion.
The project aligns with China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and it reflects Beijing’s growing assertiveness in regional infrastructure development. Located in the strategically sensitive Medog region of Tibet, which is only 30 km away from the Indian border, the project highlights how infrastructure is increasingly being used as an instrument of statecraft in contemporary geopolitics.
The Yarlung Tsangpo, which is known as the Brahmaputra in India and the Jamuna in Bangladesh, is a transboundary river that originates in Tibet and flows through India into Bangladesh. Any unilateral intervention by an upstream nation, such as dam construction, directly affects downstream nations by altering water flow, threatening agriculture, and disrupting ecological balance. Beyond environmental impacts, such control also gives China significant geopolitical leverage over India and Bangladesh, turning water into a potential tool of strategic influence in regional diplomacy and security.
When Beijing formally announced the dam project last December, both India and Bangladesh voiced serious concerns about its potential downstream impact. By January, India’s Ministry of External Affairs had officially raised the issue with Beijing. “The Chinese side has been urged to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas.”
Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Mr. Pema Khandu recently described the project as a ticking “water bomb,” warning of a potential existential threat to local tribes and livelihoods. “The issue is that China cannot be trusted… This is quite serious, because China could even use this as a sort of ‘water bomb,’” he told reporters earlier this month.
These concerns are not new. A report by the Lowy Institute, an Australia-based think tank, previously noted that control over rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau effectively gives China a “chokehold” on India’s economy, reinforcing fears about water becoming a strategic weapon.
Just a day after China broke ground on the Yarlung Tsangpo dam, Arunachal Pradesh Minister Ojing Tasing stated: “China has already started their dam construction, and we cannot sit idle. We must act and we are acting. This is about India’s future water security. If we do not act now, we may suffer later.”
The Yarlung Tsangpo dam project reveals the deeper political calculus behind China’s infrastructure push in Tibet. Far from being a purely developmental or environmental initiative, the project forms part of Beijing’s long-standing strategy of using infrastructure to reinforce state authority and territorial integration in the region. While Chinese officials have not disclosed how many people may be displaced, it is evident that Tibetan communities face permanent relocation, echoing earlier patterns of coerced resettlement under the guise of “modernization.” These forced displacements often result in the loss of ancestral lands, cultural heritage, and economic livelihoods, compounding the historical marginalization experienced by Tibetans under Chinese rule.
Beijing claims its sovereign right to develop water resources within its territory and frames the project as a green energy initiative that will reduce carbon emissions, cut pollution, and improve the quality of life for rural Tibetans. Chinese state media frequently describe these mega-dams as a “win-win” for development and environmental goals. However, this narrative is challenged by Tibetan scholars and international observers, who see the project as a continuation of resource extraction and political repression in a highly sensitive frontier region.
Politically, China has a strategic calculation over the Yarlung Tsangpo project to expand its influence over the region and beyond.
By controlling the river, China is using Tibet’s water to prepare a water war against India. In this case, the dam becomes not just an energy infrastructure, but a strategic asset to strengthen China’s geopolitical power in South Asia.
