China’s growing influence in Bangladesh has shifted into high gear, seizing on recent political changes to deepen its foothold in the country and the broader Bay of Bengal region. The transition from Sheikh Hasina’s administration to the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus in August this year marked a critical juncture. Beijing moved swiftly to engage with the new administration, consolidating its position in a country of immense geopolitical importance. This strategic manoeuvring underscores China’s determination to become a central player in Bangladesh’s political and economic landscape.
The swift response of China to the political shift in Dhaka has been telling. Chinese officials attended the swearing-in ceremony of the interim government, signalling their readiness to support the new leadership. A visit by Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen to the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) headquarters further demonstrated Beijing’s willingness to engage across Bangladesh’s political spectrum, regardless of historical controversies. These gestures reflect a calculated strategy to build comprehensive ties with all factions, securing a stronger foothold in a key South Asian nation.
Economic and strategic investments
Under the previous Hasina government, China’s presence in Bangladesh had already been growing steadily. However, the recent changes have offered Beijing a prime opportunity to accelerate its engagement. Bangladesh’s strategic location at the apex of the Bay of Bengal makes it an indispensable player in China’s broader maritime ambitions. The Bay, with its critical shipping lanes and abundant natural resources, is pivotal to Beijing’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
China’s investments in Bangladesh span critical infrastructure, including ports, transportation networks, and energy projects. The development of Chittagong and Mongla ports exemplifies Beijing’s intent to bolster maritime connectivity, enabling greater economic and security reach. These initiatives also serve to integrate Bangladesh further into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), cementing economic interdependence while extending China’s influence deeper into South Asia.
In addition to economic projects, China has made significant inroads into Bangladesh’s defence sector. From supplying naval vessels to collaborating on a submarine base in Cox’s Bazar, Beijing is helping to enhance Dhaka’s maritime capabilities. These moves align with China’s goal of securing access to critical maritime routes while strengthening its strategic presence in the Bay of Bengal.
The Diplomatic and Political Dimension
China’s engagement with Bangladesh’s interim administration reflects a nuanced strategy aimed at leveraging political shifts to its advantage. Ambassador Yao Wen’s outreach to JeI—a party with a controversial history due to its opposition to Bangladesh’s independence—is emblematic of Beijing’s pragmatic approach. By courting all political factions, including those traditionally sidelined, China seeks to position itself as an indispensable partner in Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape.
Moreover, China’s growing role in Bangladesh highlights its broader regional strategy to counterbalance India’s influence. Beijing’s outreach is bolstered by its substantial investments and expanding trade relations. According to a South Asian Voices report, between 2016 and 2022, Chinese firms poured over USD $26 billion into Bangladesh, making China the country’s largest trading partner. These investments have not only strengthened bilateral ties but also created economic dependencies that deepen Beijing’s leverage.
Implications for India
China’s expanding presence in Bangladesh carries significant implications for regional dynamics, particularly for India. Bangladesh’s geographical proximity to India’s northeastern states makes it a sensitive area in terms of security and connectivity. The Bay of Bengal, crucial for India’s maritime trade and security, is increasingly becoming a contested space with China’s growing naval presence.
Chinese-funded projects, including the submarine base in Cox’s Bazar, bring Beijing’s military capabilities closer to India’s Andaman and Nicobar Command. Furthermore, the deployment of advanced surveillance technologies, such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 UAVs seen near Indian borders, raises concerns about potential intelligence-gathering activities. For India, these developments necessitate a recalibration of its strategy in the Bay of Bengal to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
A democracy-driven alternative
While China’s economic allure is undeniable, its authoritarian model presents an inherent challenge for long-term partnerships. As a democracy, India stands out as a more trusted ally in the region. Bangladesh’s historical ties with India and its shared democratic values offer a counterweight to China’s growing clout. For many in South Asia, the transparency and accountability associated with democratic systems remain appealing, particularly in contrast to the opacity of Chinese dealings.
India’s ability to leverage these shared values and historical ties can serve as a foundation for reinforcing its partnership with Bangladesh. By focusing on mutually beneficial initiatives, including infrastructure development, trade, and cultural exchanges, India can provide a credible alternative to China’s model of engagement. Additionally, strengthening people-to-people ties and promoting regional cooperation can help India maintain its relevance in Bangladesh.
Broader implications in South Asia
China’s deepening relationship with Bangladesh is part of a larger pattern of strategic manoeuvres across South Asia. The Bay of Bengal, with its vast economic potential and critical maritime routes, has become a focal point for Beijing’s Indo-Pacific ambitions. Bangladesh’s cooperation is crucial for China to expand its influence in the region, further tilting the balance of power in South Asia.
For Bangladesh, the growing engagement with China presents both opportunities and challenges. While Chinese investments have spurred economic growth and job creation, the increasing economic dependence on Beijing raises concerns about sovereignty and debt sustainability. Bangladesh owes approximately USD $6 billion to China, underscoring the financial leverage Beijing holds over Dhaka.
China’s strategic embrace of Bangladesh is reshaping the regional geopolitical landscape. Through a combination of economic investments, political outreach, and military collaborations, Beijing is positioning itself as a dominant player in the Bay of Bengal. While the long-term consequences of this growing influence remain uncertain, it is clear that Bangladesh will continue to be a pivotal arena in the broader power dynamics between China and India. For India, the challenge lies in responding with a strategy that not only safeguards its security and economic interests but also reinforces its standing as a trusted and democratic partner in South Asia.
